Despite the doubts that lithium batteries still raise or the high price of vehicles, experts predict exponential growth in the coming years
"We have reached a first stage of maturity, since we can now satisfy demand at competitive prices... In the last two years, high-level European and Chinese cars have appeared, with over 400 kilometers of autonomy and around 30,000 euros with public aid, not far from the price of gasoline; the whole process has been slowed down by problems with the supply of materials, but in the coming years we are going to see exponential growth," predicts Jorge Ríos, CEO of Etecnic, leading engineering company in the management of electric vehicle charging based in Reus.
Antonio Cavallé, founder and CEO of Inersis, a company specialized in solar energy solutions, shares the same opinion. In his opinion, we are on the verge of the great 'explosion' of the electric vehicle, something like the historical moment when horse-drawn carriages were replaced by the combustion engine. "At the beginning of the 20th century, still without a network of gas stations, they believed that the difficulty of refueling would make the invention fail; now something similar is happening with electric stations, but the charging points are going to multiply in such a way that we don't even know We'll stop and think about it."
The network of charging stations
In Spain there are just under 17,000 points - about 4,200 in Catalonia - (8 out of 10 slow charging, and only 5% ultra-fast), when the goal is to reach 340,000 in 2030, for a planned fleet of 100% electric passenger cars. of five million units. For the moment, in 2022 the goal of the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC), which established reaching 45,000 charging points and 120,000 electric passenger cars sold (including pure and plug-in hybrids), was very far away. According to the car manufacturers' association Anfac, there were barely more than 78,000.
The growth of the network of charging stations, and especially public ones, is essential to increase the fleet of electric vehicles. Logically, the boom in the installation of solar panels will also benefit the capillarization of charging points. "Experts calculate - analyzes Jorge Ríos - that we are about two years behind a reference country like Holland, which has one charging point for every 1,500 inhabitants; to give us an idea, here there is one for every 3,000 in Reus, which "It is a national benchmark for public charging points... We have to continue making investments."
In this sense, the reality of Catalonia can be considered relatively positive, "with a public network on par with any top European country and with more than 50 fast charging points in the Catalan capitals." There is still a lot to improve in the interior, since the coastal area is better equipped today: "Some examples such as L'Hospitalet de l'Infant are benchmarks thanks to spectacularly low costs." The network continues to grow at an intense pace; In Tarragona, in the short term, a large project stands out in the Entrevíes industrial estate, -powered by solar panels-, and also a powerful station in Vilallonga del Camp. "Unfortunately, bureaucracy still continues to complicate our lives too much with procedures and more procedures," describes Antonio Cavallé, promoter of this latest project.
Low penetration
According to the OCU, with prices at the end of 2022, 50 monthly trips of 12.5 kilometers each cost 19 euros in an electric car, while in one with a gasoline engine, the cost is 114 euros, compared to 88 euros for a diesel. However, despite the enormous savings, the penetration percentage of electrified vehicles is above 20% in countries such as France or Germany, while in Spain - where the non-plug-in hybrid is around 30% - it barely reaches 5%. . The current market share in Europe is around 12% on average, which gives an idea of the growth potential of this market.
During the first two months of 2023, the share of new vehicle sales remained slightly above 10% - compared to 20% in Portugal, as a close example, or 28% in Germany - with a total of 17,141 units, which represents +40% over the same period in 2022. In February, an increase of 33% was recorded with just over 9,000 units, approximately one in ten.
The executive president of the Oliva Motor group, Santiago Oliva, is a firm defender of the electric 'revolution' in mobility. Although progress is slower than expected in "a very long-term process that has only just begun," he believes that demand is intense and will continue to grow as technology advances and manufacturers overcome current problems to supply the market. As proof of his commitment, Oliva Motor is the exclusive official importer for Spain of JAC Motors, a Chinese manufacturer - with the participation of Volkswagen - of the electric truck with which he hopes to transform last-mile delivery in Spain.
Under technological uncertainty
Compared to the prescribers of electromobility, other leading voices in the sector, more linked to heavy transport, are not at all clear about the model. The high cost of this technology, which is not affordable for all families or companies, and above all the difficulties involved in manufacturing batteries on a large scale, generate many doubts: "The calendar (2035) is not realistic, and We also do not see a good efficiency-cost ratio, not to mention the blockage of supply chains," reiterates Josep Lluís Aymat, general director of the Tarragona Motor Transport Business Federation.
"Still," insists Jorge Ríos, "we have not seen the limit of size or energy potential of batteries, and there are also great advances in circular economy to reuse them when they lose capacity; I do not see much sense in the medium term to develop, with all the complexity that something like this requires, hydrogen technology when we can optimize what we already have... Hydrogen is of interest to the most conservative industrial sectors, but there is a key issue which is efficiency, and the losses to bring energy 'to the wheel' are much smaller.
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